The Probability that the Ra Material is True

i wish to calculate the probability that the contents of the Ra material are true. This is a continuation of the work done in On the Truth Value of the Ra Material.

I pointed out there that if the Ra material was communicated by Ra, and Ra did not tell any lies, then all of the contents of the Ra material were true. Eric pointed out that even given these assumptions, parts of the Ra material could still be false due to the possibility of transmission errors and the possibility of foreign takeover in session 8.

I find the latter possibility unlikely; I find it more likely that the omitted “I am Ra” taglines in session 8 were a simple mistake on Ra’s part, similar to the transmission errors. I also find it likely that Ra would have later mentioned the fact that a foreign takeover occurred, if it had in fact occurred. I have therefore not taken the possibility of foreign takeover into consideration in the following calculations, but it would be easy for a concerned individual to modify the calculations to take such a possibility into account.

To posit that the Ra material was communicated by Ra requires positing two propositions which depart from conventional scientific understanding: the existence of extraterrestrials, and the possibility of telepathy. Therefore these two propositions will be incorporated into the calculation. Additionally, it will take into account the proposition that extraterrestrials are responsible for UFO sightings, abduction experiences, crop circles, and similar paranormal phenomena.

It is not possible to calculate an “absolute probability” that the Ra material is true, because this probability must be relative to the estimated probabilities of various other propositions. I have noted, by marking with an asterisk (*), where I am employing my own estimate of a particular probability. These probability estimates are generally fairly moderate. A scientific materialist might give very low probability estimates for the same propositions, and a paranormal enthusiast might give very high estimates. I have tried to moderate between the extremes of these two points of view. An interested individual can modify the calculations to use their own estimated probabilities of the same propositions.

The propositions which I will employ in the calculation are:

E = Extraterrestrials exist.
U = Extraterrestrials are responsible for UFO sightings, abduction experiences, crop circles, etc.
T = Telepathy exists.
R = The Ra material was communicated by Ra.
H = Ra did not tell any lies.
V = The Ra material is true, except for transmission errors.

First, an estimate of the probability that extraterrestrials are responsible for UFO sightings, abduction experiences, crop circles, etc.:

* P(U) = .4

If U, then extraterrestrials necessarily exist:

P(E | U) = 1

An estimate of the probability that, in the case where extraterrestrials are not responsible for paranormal phenomena, extraterrestrials nonetheless exist:

* P(E | ~U) = .2

A calculation of the overall probability that extraterrestrials exist, given the previous estimates:

P(E) = P(E | U) * P(U) + P(E | ~U) * P(~U) = 1 * .4 + .2 * .6 = .52

An estimate of the probability that telepathy exists:

* P(T) = .5

This estimate is based on the fact that paranormal researchers have been reporting positive results on telepathy experiments for the past century, but other researchers assert that all of these results are invalid.

The probability that both extraterrestrials and telepathy exist:

P(E & T) = P(E) * P(T) = .52 * .5 = .26

If either extraterrestrials do not exist, or telepathy does not exist, then the Ra material was not communicated by Ra:

P(R | ~E) = 0
P(R | ~T) = 0

An estimate of the probability that the Ra material was communicated by Ra, in the case where both extraterrestrials and telepathy exist:

* P(R | E & T) = .8

The probability that the Ra material was communicated by Ra:

P(R) = P(R | E & T) * P(E & T) = .8 * .26 = .21

An estimate of the probability that Ra was honest, in the case where the Ra material was communicated by Ra:

* P(H | R) = .9

The probability that the Ra material was communicated by Ra, and Ra was honest:

P(R & H) = P(R) * P(H | R) = .21 * .9 = .19

If the Ra material was communicated by Ra and Ra was honest, then the Ra material is true except for transmission errors. Furthermore, if the Ra material is true except for transmission errors, then the Ra material was communicated by Ra and Ra was honest, as the Ra material contains these very statements in such a form that it is unlikely that they were due to transmission errors. Thus:

(R & H) iff V

Therefore:

P(V) = P(R & H) = .19

Therefore, according to my estimates, there is a 19% probability that the Ra material is true.

We can make the same calculations using a conservative set of assumptions regarding the existence of extraterrestrials and telepathy:

* P(U) = .05
* P(E | ~U) = .05
* P(T) = .05

These yield:

P(V) = .0035

This is a 0.35% chance — quite negligible — that the Ra material is true.

We can make the same calculations using a liberal set of assumptions regarding the existence of extraterrestrials and telepathy:

* P(U) = .9
* P(E | ~U) = .5
* P(T) = .9

These yield:

P(V) = .62

This is a 62% probability that the Ra material is true.

The wide variation possible in outcomes, based on one’s estimated prior probabilities, shows the relative worthlessness of these particular numbers. I would guess, however, that the most reasonable estimates are in the range of 1% to 40%.

We can see that it requires a significant amount of certainty about a significant number of unprovable propositions to regard the Ra material as true as a result of rational reflection. The decision to regard the Ra material as true is one which is most likely based not on rational reflection, but on faith.

Finally, here is a list of the probabilities which must be estimated to carry out this calculation:

P(U) – The probability that extraterrestrials are responsible for UFO sightings, abduction experiences, crop circles, etc.

P(E | ~U) – The probability that extraterrestrials exist, in the case where they are not responsible for the aforementioned paranormal phenomena.

P(T) – The probability that telepathy is possible.

P(R | E & T) – The probability that the Ra material was communicated by Ra, in the case where extraterrestrials exist and telepathy is possible.

P(H | R) – The probability that Ra did not tell any lies, in the case where the Ra material was communicated by Ra.

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